There are only 2 weeks remaining before Presidential election day in the U.S.- November 3.
2020 has been a very, very stressful year for everyone but especially citizens of the U.S, mainly because of the impact of COVID and the Presidential election.
It is said that people don’t fear change ? they fear uncertainty. And this year has been full of uncertainty for Americans.
Today is October 19, 2020. At this moment in time, it appears that Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States, based on most polls. His strategy was to avoid the public as much as possible to avoid tough questions on his political decisions in the past and his detailed plans for the future. Those plans include very expensive programs such as free tuition for all, the Green New Deal and a form of public health insurance for everyone or “Medicare for All”.
In reality, this is not an election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. It’s an election between pro-Donald Trump and anti-Donald Trump voters.
The anti-Donald Trump voters appear to have the advantage, particularly with the expansion of voting by mail. It is easier for political armies to ‘harvest’ votes by mail ? in other words, deliver ballots to citizens who ordinarily might not vote and persuade them to vote Democrat or Republican. The political armies or ‘harvesters’ then collect these ballots and deliver them to polling stations, increasing votes for that political candidate.
More people have voted by mail to date than at any time in U.S. history. Under normal conditions, about 10% of votes are received by mail but this year, we could see 30-40% of votes received by mail.
Donald Trump should lose the election BUT here are some factors that could be to his advantage:
1) Polls are very inaccurate ? they sample Democrats more heavily than Republicans and people who support Trump are more likely to lie about their preference because they fear violence, loss of jobs or identity theft. These ‘shy’ Trump voters could be a substantial force on election day. In addition, most polls were wrong in 2016 they predicted a Hillary Clinton victory with a 99% confidence rating.
2) Biden’s son Hunter had 3 laptops revealed last week with damaging information on payments he received from Ukraine and Chinese sources, who sought access to Joe Biden when he was vice-president. It is also possible Joe Biden received some part of those payments.
3) The last Presidential debate will be held Thursday, October 22nd. Both candidates did very poorly during the 1st debate but President Trump may have been suffering from the early effects of the COVID virus. He participated in a Town Hall last week and did much better.
Trump should focus on Biden’s son and his alleged corruption and Biden’s possible involvement. Biden has always defended his integrity and his family, so we could see a strong emotional reaction from him.
The candidate who appears stronger at this debate could have momentum into the election to collect independent votes.
4) Cities have been quiet that past few weeks ? no Antifa or Black Lives Matter protests. If nothing happens to provoke the riots we saw during the summer, Biden could benefit.
It appears Joe Biden’s strategy of making the election all about pro or con Trump is working well. Trump continues to hold large, very popular political rallies and there are signs for Trump everywhere outside the big cities, not so many for Biden.
Could Trump ‘enthusiasm’ defeat Trump ‘fatigue’?
We may not know on November 3rd because of different state rules on mail ballots unless Trump or Biden win convincingly. If it’s close, we may not know the results until later November of December.
Most Americans will be happy when the election is finished and we have some certainty again. I doubt few people will be sad when 2020 is finally over.