It is only one year away from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election yet it seems the election from 2016 hasn’t been decided as yet. Democrats in Congress are still trying to overturn the results of the 2016 election by impeaching President Trump, first through the Mueller investigation into alleged Trump/Russia collusion and now for trying to coerce Ukraine into providing negative information on the leading Democratic candidate for President in 2020, Joe Biden.
Every day brings new charges and conflict in the U.S. Politics have not been so negative and bitter since the 1960’s during the height of the Vietnam War.
This “cultural” civil war is more intense than ever and it’s spilling over into the workplace. 25% of employees surveyed report they have had a serious argument with a co-worker over politics within the last year. 90% of Democrats feel impeaching President Trump is the right thing to do, while 90% of Republicans are against.
Because the government is so divided, virtually nothing is happening in the employment law area. Employers must manage employee relations during a time when people are using social media to either resist or support Trump. Unemployment is at a 50 year low (3.6%) so people have greater mobility to change jobs if they disagree with a company’s political position. Even if a company states it wants to have a neutral position, employees are forcing their companies to take a position or they threaten to protest by walk-outs, boycotts or releasing sensitive company information to the public. Wayfair and Google have experienced large employee walk-outs this year coordinated through the company’s email system.
How long with this “cultural” civil war last? Will Trump be impeached or will he win the Presidency again November 2020?
The Democrats in the House of Representatives have a majority so it would not be difficult to approve formal impeachment over the next few months. Impeachment means that a trial must be held in the Senate to determine if the President remains in office or is discharged.
The Senate is the jury for an impeachment trial and because it is majority Republican, and the Constitution requires that 67 Senators vote to remove a President, it is highly unlikely the President would be removed from office. The Democrats would have to convince 20 Republicans to vote against Trump, which would mean Republicans would certainly lose the Presidential election in 2020. That is highly unlikely to happen unless As for President’s Trumps chances for a 2020 unless the Democrats can find Trump committed a very serious crime.
What are the chance that Trump could win re-election?
Trump’s supporters fall into 3 main categories:
1)Those who support him as loyal Republicans;
2)Those who love his rude, ‘honest’ style and New York personality; and
3)Those who like his policies (limited immigration, tax cuts, stronger military, strong economy, conservative judges) BUT deeply dislike his personality and leadership style.
Trump has strong support from 1) and 2) supporters but his support from those who like his policies could change if the economy weakens or a moderate Democrat is nominated as his opponent. There are a few moderate Democrats with a possibility of challenging Trump, led by Joe Biden. If Biden has to drop out because of the Ukraine controversy over his son, the leading contenders would be Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, both seen as socialists. Michael Bloomberg, former mayor of New York City, has shown some interest in running as a moderate since he believes socialists have no chance of winning election in the U.S. and he strongly wants to defeat Trump. It’s also possible Hillary Clinton may run again as a candidate but given the fact she lost the election to Trump in 2016, many Democrats are not confident she could win.
Trump is still favored by many to win re-election but things change daily. It is certain though that every day will bring more drama and stress to all Americans.